ARK Invest Predicts Bitcoin Could Skyrocket to $2.4 Million by 2030

In a bold projection, ARK Invest has updated its 2030 Bitcoin price forecast, suggesting the cryptocurrency could soar to $2.4 million per coin in a bullish scenario. This revision comes as part of the firm's latest "Big Ideas 2025" report, which attributes the potential surge to increasing institutional adoption and Bitcoin's growing role as a digital store of value.

ARK research analyst David Puell outlined three possible scenarios for Bitcoin’s price by the end of 2030: a bear case with Bitcoin reaching $500,000, a base case projecting a rise to $1.2 million, and a bull case forecasting a surge to $2.4 million.

These projections are grounded in ARK Invest’s analysis of Bitcoin’s total addressable market (TAM), expected adoption and penetration rates across institutional and retail sectors, and the cryptocurrency’s fixed supply cap of 21 million coins. By evaluating how Bitcoin could capture value from traditional asset classes such as gold, global currencies, and sovereign debt, ARK models a range of outcomes tied to increasing demand and constrained supply dynamics.

ARK Invest emphasizes that institutional investment is a significant driver in the bull case scenario. The firm estimates that Bitcoin could achieve a 6.5% penetration rate into the $200 trillion global financial market (excluding gold) by 2030. This level of adoption would position Bitcoin as a formidable asset class alongside traditional investments.

Another critical factor in ARK's projection is Bitcoin's potential to capture a substantial share of gold's market capitalization. The report posits that Bitcoin could attain up to 60% of gold's $18 trillion market cap, reinforcing its status as "digital gold." This shift reflects a growing perception of Bitcoin as a reliable store of value, particularly in times of economic uncertainty.

Emerging markets also play a pivotal role in ARK's analysis. The firm suggests that Bitcoin's use as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation in developing countries could contribute significantly to its valuation. Specifically, this use case is projected to account for 13.5% of the $2.4 million valuation, assuming a 6% TAM penetration rate in these regions.

Further contributions to Bitcoin's potential growth include adoption by nation-state treasuries, corporate cash reserves, and the expansion of on-chain financial services. Innovations such as Layer 2 networks and wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) are expected to bolster the cryptocurrency's utility and accessibility.

ARK's analysis also considers the impact of Bitcoin's "active" supply, discounting coins that are lost or held long-term. By applying this liveliness-adjusted supply metric, the bull case price target increases from the original $1.5 million to the updated $2.4 million. The firm notes that Bitcoin's scarcity and lost supply are often underrepresented in valuation models, suggesting additional upside potential.

While these projections are ambitious, ARK Invest acknowledges the challenges ahead, including regulatory hurdles, technological developments, and market volatility. Nonetheless, the firm's optimistic outlook underscores a growing confidence in Bitcoin's long-term viability as a mainstream financial asset.

As of April 25, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $94,000, having recovered from a low of $75,160 earlier this year. The cryptocurrency's resilience and increasing institutional interest continue to fuel discussions about its future trajectory.

Investors and market observers will closely monitor Bitcoin's performance and adoption trends as it navigates the path toward ARK Invest's projected milestones.